Received:
2019-03-18 | Accepted:
2019-09-15 | Published:
2019-12-15
Title
Dividend policy and stock price volatility in Indian capital market
Abstract
As argued by Modigilani & Miller, the dividends are irrelevant only in perfect markets but in an emerging market like India, the dividends are expected to show its relevance. Indian capital market have surpassed a sea change in the recent past including demonetization, implementation of new tax regimes, political controversies and the like. Despite these facts, the Indian capital markets soars at many a times due to its active trading. Against this backdrop, this research paper seeks to examine the relationship between dividend policies and share price volatility. The motivation behind this research is to first time employ a powerful unbiased volatility estimator, created by Yang and Zhang that is 14 times as efficient as close to close estimate. A sample of 116 textiles companies, listed and actively traded in Bombay Stock Exchange of India (BSE) from 2008 to 2017 selected for the study. In examining the impact of dividend policy on share price volatility in Indian capital market, multiple least squares regressions is employed. Empirical results shows that dividends are affecting stock prices variations in India which fits in with the bird in hand and signaling theories of dividends. Due to the volatile nature of the market, Indian investors’ prefer demanding more dividends from firms rather keeping retained earnings on reinvestment. The outcomes of this study supports the fact that dividends policy influence stock price variations in Indian capital market. The results of this study provides an insight to the financial managers in developing their dividend policies to maximizing the shareholders wealth.
Keywords
dividends, share price volatility, dividend payout
JEL classifications
G35
, G40
URI
http://jssidoi.org/jesi/article/408
DOI
Pages
862-874
This is an open access issue and all published articles are licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
References
Al-Shawawreh, F.K. (2014). The impact of dividend policy on share price volatility: empirical evidence from Jordanian Stock Market. European Journal of Business and Management, 6(38), pp. 133-143. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/fb5a/742c62ca0b06fcb45efd8e80fd7e6cfcccc2.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Alaoui, A. et al. (2017). Leverage versus volatility: evidence from the capital structure of European Firms. Economic Modelling, 62, pp. 145-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.023
Search via ReFindit
Allen, D. E. and Rachim, V. S. (1996). Dividend policy and stock price volatility: Australian evidence. Applied Financial Economics 6(2), pp. 175-188. https://doi.org/10.1080/096031096334402
Search via ReFindit
Baker, M. and Wurgler, J. (2004). A Catering Theory of Dividends. The Journal of Finance, 59(3), pp. 1125-1165. http://people.stern.nyu.edu/jwurgler/papers/wurgler_baker_dividends.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Bali, R. (2003). An empirical analysis of stock returns around dividend changes. Applied Economics 35, pp. 51-61. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684020158930
Search via ReFindit
Baskin, J. (1989) Dividend policy and the volatility of common stocks. The Journal of Portfolio Management 15(3), pp. 19-25. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1989.409203
Search via ReFindit
Bernstein, P.L. (1996). Dividends: The Puzzle. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 9, pp. 16-22. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6622.1996.tb00097.x
Search via ReFindit
Bhattacharya, S. (1979). Imperfect information, dividend policy, and "the bird in the hand" fallacy. The Bell Journal of Economics 10(1), pp. 259-270. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6cdb/876788ceed2b36dc93fcc01267a3182d5d3a.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Black, F. and Scholes, M. (1974). The effect of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 1(1), pp.1–22. 90006-3 https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(74)
Search via ReFindit
Brennan, M. J. (1971). A note on dividend irrelevance and the Gordon Valuation Model. Journal of Finance, 26(5), pp. 1115-1121. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb01752.x
Search via ReFindit
Brennan, M. J., and Thakor, A. V. (1990) Shareholder’s preferences and dividend policy. The Journal of Finance, 45(4), pp. 990-1018. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2328712
Search via ReFindit
Chen, X., Harford, J., and Li, K. (2007). Monitoring: which institutions matter? Journal of Financial Economics, 86(2), pp. 279-305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2006.09.005
Search via ReFindit
Christie, A. A. (1982). The stochastic behavior of common stock variances: Value, leverage and interest rate effects. Journal of Financial Economics, 10 (4), pp. 407-432. 90018-6 https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(82)
Search via ReFindit
DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L. and Stulz, R. M. (2006). Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: a test of the life-cycle theory. Journal of Financial Economics 81(2), pp. 227-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.07.005
Search via ReFindit
Easterbrook, F. H. (1984). Two agency-cost explanations of dividends. The American Economic Review 74(4), pp. 650-659. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1805130
Search via ReFindit
Elton, E. J., Gruber, M.J. and Blake, C.R. (1970). Marginal stockholder tax rates and the Clientele effect. Review of Economics and Statistics, 52, pp. 68-74. http://people.stern.nyu.edu/mgruber/working%20papers/tax_effects.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Goncharov, I. (2015). Fair value accounting, earnings volatility, and stock price volatility. Master thesis, Lancaster University. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/65d8/7f7a07867353a3d074f04de4aea55bd4c3be.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Gordon, M. J. (1959). Dividends, earnings, and stock prices. The Review of Economics and Statistics, pp. 99-105. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1927792
Search via ReFindit
Gordon, M. J. (1963). Optimal investment and financing policy. The Journal of finance, 18(2), pp. 264-272. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2977907
Search via ReFindit
Gordon, M.J. and Shapiro, E. (1956) Capital equipment analysis: the required rate of profit. Management Science, 3, pp. 102-10. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2627177
Search via ReFindit
Gunarathne, D. et al. (2015). Impact of dividend policy on stock price volatility and market value of the firm: evidence from Sri Lankan manufacturing companies. Corporate Ownership and Control, 13(3), pp. 219-225. https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2699697
Search via ReFindit
Habib, Y. et al. (2012). Dividend policy and share price volatility: evidence from Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 12 (5), pp.79-83. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b5fd/e71aa486aa432f3d26901ce9de8ecee2aaaf.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Hashemijoo, M., Ardekani, A. and Younesi, N. (2012). The impact of dividend policy on share price volatility in the Malaysian Stock Market. Journal of Business Studies, 4(1), pp. 111-129. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2147458
Search via ReFindit
Hooi, S.E. et al. (2015). Dividend policy and share price volatility. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 12(1), pp. 226-234. https://businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/6464/imfi_en_2015_01cont_Hooi.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Hussainey, K., Oscar Mgbame, C. and Chijoke-Mgbame, A. M. (2011). Dividend policy and share price volatility: UK evidence. The Journal of Risk Finance, 12 (1), pp. 57-68. https://doi.org/10.1108/15265941111100076
Search via ReFindit
Jecheche, P. (2012). Dividend policy and stock price volatility: a case of the Zimbabwe stock exchange. Journal of Finance and Accountancy, 10, pp. 1-13. http://www.aabri.com/manuscripts/121168.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Kumar, B. (2016). The Impact of Dividend Policy on Share Price Volatility in the Indian Stock Market. Zenith International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 6 (7), pp. 125-132. http://www.zenithresearch.org.in/images/stories/pdf/2016/JULY/ZIJMR/14_ZIJMR_VOL6_ISSUE7_JULY2016.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Kumaraswamy, S., Aktan, B., AlHawachi, Z.H. (2017). Why do financial services companies pay dividend? Evidence from Qatar Stock Exchange. Investment Mangement and Financial Innovations, 14(3), pp. 389-403. https://businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/9594/imfi_2017_03cont2_Kumaraswamy.pdf
Search via ReFindit
La Porta, R., De Silanes, F. L., Shleifer, A., and Vishny, R. W. (2000). Agency problems and dividend policies around the world. The Journal of Finance, 55(1), 1- 33. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00199
Search via ReFindit
Lintner, J. (1962). Dividends, earnings, leverage, stock prices and supply of capital to Corporations. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 64, pp.243-269. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1926397
Search via ReFindit
Litzenberger, R. H. and Ramaswamy, K. (1979). The effect of personal taxes and dividends on capital asset prices: Theory and empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 7(2), pp. 163-195. 90012-6 https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(79)
Search via ReFindit
Marvides, M. (2003). Predictability and volatility of stock returns. Managerial Finance, 29(8), pp.46-56. https://doi.org/10.1108/03074350310768427
Search via ReFindit
Miller, M. and Modigliani, F. (1961). Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares. The Journal of Business 34(4), pp. 411-433. https://www2.bc.edu/thomas-chemmanur/phdfincorp/MF891%20papers/MM%20dividend.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Miller, M. and Rock, K. (1985). Dividend policy under asymmetric information. The Journal of Finance 40(4), pp. 1031-1051. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2328393
Search via ReFindit
Miller, M. and Scholes, M.S. (1982). Dividends and taxes: some empirical evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 90, pp. 1118-1141. https://doi.org/10.1086/261114
Search via ReFindit
Nazir, M., Nawaz, M, Anwar, W. and Ahmed, F. (2010). Determinants of stock price volatility in Karachi Stock Exchange: The Mediating Role of Corporate Dividend Policy. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 55, pp. 100-107. http://www.ciitlahore.edu.pk/Papers/Abstracts/146-8589069429892551798.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Profilet, K.A and Bacon, F.W. (2013). Dividend policy and stock price volatility in the U.S Equity capital market. Journal of Business and Behavioral Sciences, 25(2), pp. 63-72. (P219-231).pdf http://asbbs.org/files/ASBBS2013V1/PDF/P/Profilet_Bacon
Search via ReFindit
Ramadan, I.Z. (2013). Dividend policy and price volatility: Empirical evidence from Jordan. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting Finance and Management Sciences, 3(2), pp. 15-22. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/dcac/4fbcf471e057e79bab09b5ed87a77ef80e5b.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Rashid, A and Rahman, A.Z.M. (2008). Dividend Policy and Stock Price Volatility: Evidence from Bangladesh. Journal of Applied Business and Economics, 8(4), pp. 71-80. http://www.na-businesspress.com/JABE/RashidWeb.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Rozeff, M.S. (1982). Growth, Beta and agency costs as determinants of dividend payout ratios. The Journal of Financial Research. 5(3), pp. 249-259. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6803.1982.tb00299.x
Search via ReFindit
Rubinstein, M. (1976). The irrelevancy of dividend policy in an Arrow-Debreu economy. Journal of Finance, 31(4), 1976, pp. 1229-1230. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1976.tb01972.x
Search via ReFindit
Sadiq, M. et al. (2013) Stock Price Volatility in Relation to Dividend Policy: A Case Study of Karachi Stock Market. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 13(3), pp. 426-431. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3d9e/35b7bcc8a0a136cfbd33008da3841031a3f7.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Song, X. (2012). The relationship between dividend policy and stock price volatility. Master thesis, Saint Mary’s University. http://library2.smu.ca/handle/01/24716
Search via ReFindit
Tahir, M. (2017). Dividend policy as determinant of stock prices volatility: comparative analysis of financial sectors in Pakistan. Journal of Management Research, 3(2), pp. 210-221. http://www.jmgtr.com/index.php/jmg/article/view/40
Search via ReFindit
Tsoukalas (2005) Dividend innovations and volatility of stock returns. Management Research News, 28 (1), pp. 82-93. https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/01409170510784733
Search via ReFindit
Walter, J.E. (1963). Dividend policy; its’ influence on the value of the enterprise. Journal of Finance, 18, pp. 280-91. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2977909
Search via ReFindit
Wardhana, L.E and Tandelilin, E. (2018). Do we need a mandatory dividend regulation? The Case of the Indonesian Capital Market. Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business, 20(1), pp.33-58. https://jurnal.ugm.ac.id/gamaijb/article/download/25055/20962
Search via ReFindit
Yang and Zhang (2000). Drift-independent volatility estimation based on high, low, open, and close prices. The Journal of Business, 73 (3), pp. 477-492. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.628.4037&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Search via ReFindit
Zainudin, R. et al. (2017). Dividend policy and stock price volatility of industrial products firms in Malaysia. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 13(1), pp. 203-217. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-09-2016-0250
Search via ReFindit