Received:
2022-11-11 | Accepted:
2023-03-14 | Published:
2023-03-30
Title
Conflicts and natural disasters as drivers of forced migrations in a gravity-type approach
Abstract
The literature identifies three main drivers for forced migration, namely conflict, food insecurity, and natural and man-made disasters, although finds no empirical consensus on the association between climate change and migrations. Aim of this study is to identify the different push and pull factors of forced migration in different regions of the world by means of gravity-type models. Particular attention is devoted to determining the effects of climatic factors and conflicts, while controlling for the economic, political and social relationship between the origin and the destination countries. We model both total forced migration, that includes refugees, asylum seekers, internal displacements, and returnees, and cross-border forced migrations. Finally, we consider a full panel data analysis and estimate both fixed effects and random effects model specifications.
Keywords
forced migration, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), conflicts, natural disasters, climate change, gravity models
JEL classifications
C23
, D74
, F22
, O15
, Q54
URI
http://jssidoi.org/jesi/article/1065
DOI
Pages
254-273
Funding
We acknowledge financial support from the Italian Ministry of University and Research, Scientific Research Program of National Relevance (PRIN) 2017, project "Innovation for global challenges in a connected world: the role of local resources and socio-economic conditions".
This is an open access issue and all published articles are licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
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